FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 23, 2024 QUOTE OF THE WEEK
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“You wouldn’t have won if we’d beaten you.”—Yogi Berra, American professional baseball player, manager, and coach. |

![]() NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
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Existing Home Sales unexpectedly rose for the second month, up nearly 5% in November. They’re more than 6% ahead of a year ago, posting the most substantial annual gain over three years. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) noted: “Homes sales momentum is building. More buyers have entered the market as the economy continues to add jobs, housing inventory grows…and consumers get used to a new normal.” Housing Starts declined overall in November, but it was due to multifamilies. Single-family starts rose more than 6%, and the future looks bright, as Building Permits also shot up over 6% to a nine-month high.
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![]() REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
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THREE’S NOT A CHARM… Wednesday, the Fed cut rates for the third time this year but reduced their estimated rate cuts from four to two next year and dialed up inflation concerns. The three major stock indexes dived. The drop would have been worse except for Friday’s PCE Prices inflation report, which came in better than expected, though it didn’t show any improvement. We also saw a decline in November in industrial production and capacity utilization. However, November retail sales showed consumers spending on holidays in record amounts, although inflation is part of that. Both initial and continuing jobless claims fell, and the final Q3 GDP was revised to 3.1%. The week ended with the Dow down 2.3%, to 432,840; the S&P 500 down 2.0%, to 5,931; and the Nasdaq down 1.8%, to 19,573. Inflation concerns also tanked bonds, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% dropping 1.01, to $98.18. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased slightly but remained below a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be highly volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… The NAR says inventories are rising because “existing homeowners are capitalizing on the collective $15 trillion rise in housing equity over the past four years to look for homes better suited to their changing life circumstances.”
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![]() THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
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NEW HOME SALES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, JOBLESS CLAIMS… New Home Sales are expected to bounce back in November. We should also see a December rebound in Consumer Confidence. Economists predict weekly Initial Unemployment Claims will rise slightly but remain far below recession levels. On Tuesday, December 24, Christmas Eve, the stock market will close early at 1 p.m., and the bond markets will close at 2 p.m. All financial markets will be closed on Wednesday, December 25, Christmas Day. |

![]() FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
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Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The Fed’s inflation worries led Wall Street to expect a hold on rates at the January meeting, with the first 2025 rate cut not until March. Note: In the lower chart, the 10.7% probability of change is an 89.3% probability the rate will stay the same. The current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.
Probability of change from current policy:
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![]() BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
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Practice focusing on completing the task at hand before starting the next one. If attention lags, take a break. If something more important comes up, focus only on that instead of trying to multitask. Break the multitasking habit and you’ll spend less time working, enjoy better outcomes, and free up more time for yourself. |